Ikibazo cy’ingufu zatewe n’intambara yo muri Ukraine gishobora kwerekana ko ubukungu bwangiza Uburusiya ndetse n’Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi ku buryo amaherezo bishobora kugabanuka nk’ibihugu bikomeye ku isi.Inshingano y'iri hinduka - iracyasobanutse neza - ni uko dusa nkaho twimuka vuba ku isi ya bipolar yiganjemo ibihugu by'ibihangange bibiri: Ubushinwa na Amerika.

Niba dusuzumye igihe cy’intambara y'ubutita nyuma y’ubutegetsi bwa Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika nk’igihe kirekire kuva mu 1991 kugeza ku kibazo cy’amafaranga yo mu 2008, noneho dushobora gufata igihe cyo kuva mu 2008 kugeza muri Gashyantare uyu mwaka, igihe Uburusiya bwateraga Ukraine, nk'igihe cyo gutandukana kwinshi. .Ubushinwa bwazamutse vuba, ariko ubukungu bw’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi - no kuzamuka mbere ya 2008 - bwatanze ikirego cyemewe nka kimwe mu bihugu bikomeye ku isi.Ubukungu bw’Uburusiya bwazamutse kuva mu 2003 kandi bukomeza ingufu za gisirikare bishyira no ku ikarita.Abayobozi kuva i New Delhi kugera i Berlin kugera i Moscou bashimye ubwinshi nk'imiterere mishya y'ibibazo by'isi.

Amakimbirane akomeje kuba hagati y’Uburusiya n’iburengerazuba bivuze ko igihe cy’ubwinshi bwarangiye.N’ubwo Uburusiya bw’intwaro za kirimbuzi butazashira, iki gihugu kizisanga ari umufatanyabikorwa muto mu nzego z’ubushinwa ziyobowe n’Ubushinwa.Ingaruka ntoya y’ingaruka z’ingufu ku bukungu bw’Amerika, Hagati aho, bizorohereza Washington Washington mu buryo bwa geopolitike: Kuma kw’Uburayi amaherezo bizatesha agaciro imbaraga z’Amerika, zimaze igihe kinini zibara umugabane w’inshuti.

Ingufu zihenze nizo nkingi yubukungu bugezweho.Nubwo urwego rwingufu, mubihe bisanzwe, rufite igice gito gusa cya GDP muri rusange mubukungu bwateye imbere cyane, bigira ingaruka zitari nke kubiciro by’ifaranga n’ibiciro byinjira mu nzego zose kubera ko biri hose mu gukoresha.

Ibiciro by’amashanyarazi n’ibiciro bya gaze by’uburayi ubu byikubye hafi inshuro 10 ugereranyije n’amateka yabo mu myaka icumi ishize kugeza mu mwaka wa 2020. Iri rushanwa ry’uyu mwaka ryatewe ahanini n’intambara y’Uburusiya muri Ukraine, nubwo yariyongereye kubera ubushyuhe bukabije n’amapfa muri iyi mpeshyi.Kugeza mu 2021, Uburayi (harimo n'Ubwongereza) bwashingiraga ku Burusiya butumiza mu mahanga hafi 40 ku ijana bya gaze karemano ndetse n'igice kinini cy'ibikenerwa na peteroli n'amakara.Nk’uko ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu kibitangaza ngo amezi make mbere yo gutera Ukraine, Uburusiya bwatangiye gukoresha amasoko y’ingufu no kuzamura ibiciro bya gaze gasanzwe.

Ingufu z’Uburayi zigura hafi 2 ku ijana bya GDP mu bihe bisanzwe, ariko yazamutse igera kuri 12 ku ijana bitewe n’ibiciro byazamutse.Igiciro kinini cyubu bunini bivuze ko inganda nyinshi muburayi zirimo kugabanya ibikorwa cyangwa guhagarika burundu.Abakora aluminiyumu, abakora ifumbire, ibyuma byuma, n’abakora ibirahure bibasirwa cyane n’ibiciro bya gaze gasanzwe.Ibi bivuze ko Uburayi bushobora kwitega ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi mu myaka iri imbere, nubwo igereranyo cy’ubukungu cyerekana uburyo butandukanye.

Byumvikane neza: Uburayi ntibuzakenerwa.Nta nubwo abaturage bacyo bazahagarika imbeho.Ibipimo byambere byerekana ko umugabane urimo gukora akazi keza kugabanya gaze gasanzwe no kuzuza ibigega byabitswe mu gihe cyitumba.Ubudage n’Ubufaransa buri gihugu cyashyize mu bikorwa ibikorwa rusange by’ibanze - ku kiguzi kinini - kugira ngo bigabanye ihungabana ku bakoresha ingufu.

Ahubwo, ingaruka nyazo umugabane uhura nazo ni ugutakaza ihiganwa ryubukungu kubera kuzamuka kwubukungu buhoro.Gazi ihendutse yaterwaga no kwizera kubeshya kwizerwa ryu Burusiya, kandi ibyo byagiye burundu.Inganda zizahinduka buhoro buhoro, ariko iyo nzibacyuho izatwara igihe - kandi ishobora gutera ihungabana ry'ubukungu.

Ibi bibazo by’ubukungu ntaho bihuriye n’inzibacyuho y’ingufu zisukuye cyangwa Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi byihutirwa ku ihungabana ry’isoko ryatewe n’intambara yo muri Ukraine.Ahubwo, barashobora gukurikiranwa nicyemezo cyahise cy’Uburayi cyo guteza imbere ibiyobyabwenge by’Uburusiya, cyane cyane gaze gasanzwe.Nubwo ibishobora kuvugururwa nkizuba n umuyaga bishobora gusimbuza lisansi y’ibicuruzwa bitanga amashanyarazi ahendutse, ntibishobora gutanga byoroshye gaze gasanzwe kugirango ikoreshwe mu nganda - cyane cyane ko gaze gasanzwe itumizwa mu mahanga (LNG), ikunze kuvugwa ko ikoreshwa na gaze ya gari ya moshi, ihenze cyane.Kugerageza abanyapolitiki bamwe gushinja inzibacyuho y’ingufu zisukuye kubera inkubi y’ubukungu ikomeje bityo ntibisimbuwe.

Amakuru mabi ku Burayi yongeyeho icyerekezo kibanziriza iki: Kuva mu 2008, umugabane w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi wagabanutse.Nubwo Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika zavuye mu bukungu bukomeye, ubukungu bw’ibihugu by’i Burayi bwaragoye cyane.Bamwe muribo bafashe imyaka kugirango basubire kurwego gusa mbere yikibazo.Hagati aho, ubukungu muri Aziya bwakomeje kwiyongera ku buryo bugaragara, buyobowe n’ubukungu bukomeye bw’Ubushinwa.

Banki y'isi ivuga ko hagati ya 2009 na 2020, umuvuduko w’ubukungu bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi wagereranije 0.48 ku ijana gusa.Iterambere ry’Amerika muri kiriya gihe ryikubye hafi inshuro eshatu, ugereranyije 1,38 ku ijana ku mwaka.Kandi Ubushinwa bwazamutse ku muvuduko wa 7.36 ku ijana buri mwaka mu gihe kimwe.Igisubizo cyiza ni uko, mu gihe umugabane w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi ku isi wari munini ugereranyije n’Amerika ndetse n’Ubushinwa mu 2009, ubu niwo uri hasi muri bitatu.

Nkubu nko mu 2005, Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi wagize 20% by’umusaruro rusange w’isi.Bizaba bingana na kimwe cya kabiri cyayo mu ntangiriro ya 2030 niba ubukungu bw’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi bwagabanutseho 3 ku ijana mu 2023 na 2024 hanyuma bugakomeza umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’icyorezo cya mbere cy’icyorezo cya 0.5% ku mwaka mu gihe isi yose izamuka kuri 3 ku ijana ( impuzandengo yabanjirije icyorezo ku isi).Niba itumba ryo mu 2023 rikonje kandi ubukungu bwifashe nabi bikabije, umugabane w’Uburayi ku musaruro rusange w’isi ushobora kugabanuka vuba.

Ikibabaje kurushaho, ni uko Uburayi busigaye inyuma cyane mu zindi mbaraga mu bijyanye n'imbaraga za gisirikare.Ibihugu by’i Burayi byahagaritse gukoresha amafaranga mu gisirikare mu myaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo kandi ntibishobora gukemura byoroshye kubura ishoramari.Amafaranga akoreshwa mu gisirikare cy’i Burayi muri iki gihe - kugira ngo asubize igihe yatakaye - aje ku giciro cy’amahirwe ku bindi bice by’ubukungu, bishobora guteza imbere iterambere no guhatira guhitamo kubabaza kugabanya imikoreshereze y’imibereho.

Ikibazo cy’Uburusiya kirakomeye kuruta Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi.Nibyo, iki gihugu kiracyafite amafaranga menshi ava mu bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bya peteroli na gaze, cyane cyane muri Aziya.Mu gihe kirekire ariko, urwego rwa peteroli na gaze mu Burusiya rushobora kugabanuka - na nyuma y'intambara yo muri Ukraine irangiye.Ubukungu bw’Uburusiya busigaye buragoye, kandi ibihano by’iburengerazuba bizambura urwego rw’ingufu igihugu ubumenyi bw’ubuhanga n’ishoramari rikeneye cyane.

Noneho ko Uburayi bwatakaje kwizera Uburusiya nk’umutanga w’ingufu, ingamba z’Uburusiya zifatika ni ukugurisha ingufu z’abakiriya ba Aziya.Igishimishije, Aziya ifite ubukungu bwinshi butera imbere.Ikibabaje ku Burusiya, hafi y'urusobe rwarwo rwose rw'imiyoboro n'ibikorwa remezo by'ingufu byubatswe ku byoherezwa mu Burayi kandi ntibishobora kwerekeza iburasirazuba mu buryo bworoshye.Bizatwara imyaka na miriyari y'amadorari kugirango Moscou ihindure ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga - kandi birashoboka ko ishobora gusanga gusa ishingiye ku bijyanye n'amafaranga ya Beijing.Inzego z’ingufu zishingiye ku Bushinwa zishobora kugera kuri politiki yagutse, ubufatanye aho Uburusiya busanga bugira uruhare runini mu bato.Ku ya 15 Nzeri, Perezida w’Uburusiya, Vladimir Putin, yemeye ko mugenzi we w’Ubushinwa, Xi Jinping, yari afite “ibibazo n’impungenge” ku ntambara yo muri Ukraine yerekana itandukaniro riri hagati y’ubutegetsi buri hagati ya Beijing na Moscou.

 

Ibura ry'ibiribwa-hamwe n'ibiciro biri hejuru kubiboneka-bishobora guteza ikibazo cyane muri utwo turere kuruta ingufu.Intambara yo muri Ukraine yangije ibisarurwa n'inzira zo gutwara ingano nyinshi nizindi ngano.Abatumiza mu mahanga ibiribwa nka Misiri bafite impamvu zo guhagarika umutima kubera imvururu za politiki zikunze guherekeza izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibiribwa.

Umurongo wanyuma wa politiki yisi nuko tugana ku isi aho Ubushinwa na Amerika aribihugu bibiri byingenzi byisi.Gushyira ku ruhande Uburayi mu bibazo by’isi bizangiza inyungu z’Amerika.Uburayi - ahanini, demokarasi, capitaliste, kandi bwiyemeje uburenganzira bwa muntu n’amategeko mpuzamahanga ashingiye ku mategeko.Umuryango w'ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi kandi uyoboye isi mu mabwiriza ajyanye n’umutekano, ubuzima bwite bw’amakuru, n’ibidukikije, bituma ibigo mpuzamahanga bihindura imyitwarire yabo ku isi yose kugira ngo bihuze n’ibipimo by’Uburayi.Kuruhande rw’Uburusiya birasa nkaho ari byiza ku nyungu z’Amerika, ariko bitera akaga ko Putin (cyangwa uzamusimbura) yakwitwara mu gutakaza igihugu ndetse n’icyubahiro mu gutoteza inzira zangiza, ndetse bikaba ari n’ibiza.

Mu gihe Uburayi bugerageza guhungabanya ubukungu bwabwo, Amerika igomba kuyishyigikira igihe bishoboka, harimo no kohereza mu mahanga bimwe mu bikoresho by’ingufu nka LNG.Ibi birashobora koroha kuvugwa kuruta gukora: Abanyamerika ntibarakanguka byimazeyo ibiciro byabo byiyongera.Ibiciro bya gaze gasanzwe muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika byikubye gatatu muri uyu mwaka kandi birashobora kuzamuka cyane mugihe amasosiyete yo muri Amerika agerageza kubona amasoko yinjiza LNG yinjiza ibicuruzwa mu Burayi no muri Aziya.Niba ibiciro by'ingufu byiyongereye, abanyapolitiki bo muri Amerika bazahura n’igitutu cyo kugabanya ibyoherezwa mu mahanga kugira ngo bibungabunge ingufu muri Amerika ya Ruguru.

Mu guhangana n’Uburayi bugoyagoya, abafata ibyemezo muri Amerika bazashaka guhinga urwego runini rw’abafatanyabikorwa b’ubukungu bahuje ibitekerezo mu mashyirahamwe mpuzamahanga nk’umuryango w’abibumbye, Umuryango w’ubucuruzi ku isi, n’ikigega mpuzamahanga cy’imari.Ibi birashobora gusobanura kurambagiza cyane mubihugu byo hagati nku Buhinde, Berezile, na Indoneziya.Nubwo bimeze bityo, Uburayi busa nkaho bugoye kubusimbuza.Amerika imaze imyaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo yungutse inyungu z’ubukungu hamwe n’ubwumvikane n’umugabane.Kugeza ubu ubukungu bw’Uburayi bugenda bugabanuka, Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika zizahangana n’icyerekezo cy’icyerekezo cy’umuryango mpuzamahanga ushyigikiye demokarasi.